China Left Reeling as Iran's Oil Exports Plummet to Historic Lows

Iran's oil exports have dwindled significantly since April, with shipments to China, its largest buyer, dropping by over 50%. This has left Chinese refiners struggling to secure supplies as they compete for increasingly expensive alternatives. The disappearance of Iranian barrels is tightening global supply, and a renewed disruption to the Strait of Hormuz could make replacing them even more costly.

Before the US blockade announced in April, China relied heavily on Iranian oil, with an average intake of 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025. However, as tensions escalated, Iran's exports plummeted to just 260,000 b/d by May and remained low throughout the summer.

China still managed to import around 980,000 b/d of Iranian oil in August, but this figure dropped to 475,000 b/d in September, with arrivals ceasing from September 26. Iran now has around 86 million barrels on the water, including 23 million trapped inside the Gulf.

As China's refineries struggle to secure supplies, they are turning to more expensive alternatives, such as Guyanese crude, which is particularly costly due to long voyages and record freight rates. The Chinese government has issued additional import quotas to help refiners cope, but this may not be enough to mitigate the impact of Iranian oil shortages.