EIA Revises Global Oil Demand and Production Forecasts Downward

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has adjusted its forecasts for global oil demand and production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). For 2026, world oil demand is now projected at 102.4 million barrels per day (bpd), down slightly from the previous estimate of 102.6 million bpd. The 2027 forecast has also been revised lower to 104.6 million bpd from 105 million bpd.

On the supply side, global oil production is expected to reach 101.1 million bpd in 2026, up from the earlier projection of 100.6 million bpd. For 2027, the forecast has been slightly reduced to 109.6 million bpd from 109.9 million bpd. U.S. oil production is projected to increase to 13.87 million bpd in 2026 and 14.3 million bpd in 2027, with domestic demand remaining steady at 20.6 million bpd for 2026 and rising to 20.8 million bpd in 2027.

The EIA also updated its natural gas forecasts. U.S. natural gas production is expected to rise to 112.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in 2026 and 116.1 bcf/d in 2027. Demand is forecasted at 92.4 bcf/d for 2026 and 93.8 bcf/d for 2027. The EIA's price forecasts for crude oil have been revised higher, with WTI Crude expected to average USD 88.21 per barrel in 2026 and USD 79.74 per barrel in 2027. Brent Crude is projected at USD 96.32 per barrel for 2026 and USD 83.74 per barrel for 2027.

The report suggests a potential surplus in the oil market, which could lead to inventory builds rather than draws. This dynamic typically pressures the oil price structure toward contango. However, the EIA's higher price forecasts indicate stronger near-term assumptions than the forward balances alone would imply. The report's findings will be closely watched as other agencies, such as OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA), publish their monthly reports.