El Niño Threatens UK Food Inflation to Surge Above 6% Next Year

A powerful El Niño climate phenomenon is forecast to develop towards the end of 2026, threatening global harvests and pushing UK food inflation above 6% next year. According to the Food and Drink Federation, food and non-alcoholic drink inflation is expected to reach 3.9% by December before peaking at 6.4% in July 2027.

The extreme weather event can trigger severe droughts and flooding across major food-producing regions, disrupting harvests and commodity supplies. Commodities such as cocoa, coffee, sugar, and grains are among the most vulnerable to weather disruptions, with poor conditions in key growing regions threatening to pile further pressure on wholesale prices.

Coffee supplies could be particularly affected by drought, while cocoa production remains heavily concentrated in West Africa, leaving global supply exposed to extreme weather in a relatively small number of countries. Rice exports from major suppliers like India, Thailand, and Vietnam may also come under pressure due to weather disruption, as well as wheat and grain availability in Australia and the US.

The UK is especially exposed to overseas disruptions because around half of the food consumed in the country is imported, including roughly 80% of fruit and vegetables. Droughts in sourcing markets like Spain and Morocco could therefore translate into higher costs for British retailers and consumers.