European Gas Prices Hit EUR80/MWh for First Time in Three Years

European gas prices have crossed the EUR80/MWh threshold for the first time in three years, reaching as high as EUR82.52/MWh on September 14th. The fill rate of European gas storage facilities is at 68.49%, well below the 80.6% recorded last year and the five-year seasonal average of 84%. Experts expect that Europe will struggle to reach a 75% storage target before the heating season begins, citing sustained supply constraints through the Strait of Hormuz, strong Asian LNG demand during the first ten days of September, and autumn maintenance on Norwegian gas infrastructure.

The risk of sharp price swings is increasing as Europe's capacity to rebuild inventories shrinks quickly. The ban on imports of Russian LNG from January 1st, 2027 adds another layer of uncertainty. Morgan Stanley analysts forecast an average TTF natural gas price of EUR85/MWh this winter, with a possible move above EUR100/MWh if a cold winter coincides with further supply disruptions from Qatar.