Gold and silver prices surged on Wednesday, November 4, ahead of Dhanteras, driven by a weaker US dollar and shifting global market sentiment following the US midterm elections. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), December gold futures climbed 2.36% to ₹1.42 lakh per 10 grams, while December silver futures rose 4.06% to ₹1.86 lakh per kg.
The rebound follows significant volatility in precious metal prices throughout 2026. Gold hit a record high of approximately $5,595 per ounce in January before experiencing a sharp correction. Factors influencing bullion prices this year include movements in the US dollar, bond yields, interest-rate expectations, and geopolitical developments.
Analysts attribute the recent uptick to the weakening US dollar, as early results from the November 3 US midterm elections suggested Democrats might gain control of Congress. This weighed on US equities and the dollar, while Treasury yields declined. Markets are also monitoring geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Ukraine, crude oil prices, and upcoming US employment data.
Monetary policy remains a critical factor. The US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September to 3.75%-4% and maintained the range in October. Prolonged higher interest rates could increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not generate interest income. Inflation, which rose to 3.7% year on year in September, also influences the outlook.
Central bank purchases and investment flows continue to shape the gold market. Religare Broking reported net central-bank purchases of approximately 57 tonnes in the first quarter and 289 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026. Global investment demand has been uneven, with gold ETFs recording inflows of 62 tonnes in the first quarter, followed by outflows of 45 tonnes in the second quarter. The trend reversed in the third quarter, with inflows of $30.7 billion.
Religare Broking has identified an accumulation range of ₹1.30 lakh-₹1.35 lakh per 10 grams for gold and ₹1.50 lakh-₹1.63 lakh per kg for silver. The brokerage set targets of ₹1.50 lakh and ₹1.58 lakh per 10 grams for gold, and ₹2.17 lakh and ₹2.55 lakh per kg for silver. Key support levels are ₹1.21 lakh per 10 grams for gold and ₹1.09 lakh per kg for silver.