Gold Futures on Track for Most Volatile Year Since 1982 Amid Hawkish Fed

Gold futures have been experiencing their most turbulent year since 1982. According to data from Bespoke Investment Group, shared by The Kobeissi Letter, there have already been 7 daily declines of 3.5% or more in gold prices this year. This is the highest count since the global financial crisis in 2008 and more than double that seen in 2025.

The latest bout of selling has been driven by rising Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since June 2007, making it more expensive to hold gold, which pays no interest. As a result, spot gold fell as much as 4% intraday to its lowest since August 5.

Kobeissi notes that the bond market is causing some of the most volatile conditions in gold's history. The analysts point out that the pressure on gold has been building over the past few months. From February, when US and Israel struck Iran, gold briefly surged but soon lost more than 25% by June 23.

The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is also contributing to gold's decline. Futures are down 5.4% this year, on track for their first annual loss since 2022. Goldman Sachs has cut its year-end 2026 fair value to $4,650, and JPMorgan projects $4,500 for the fourth quarter.

Goldman's Lina Thomas warned that a significantly more hawkish Fed path could generate a sharper-than-usual correction. The market will be closely watching this week's PCE inflation data and Friday's payrolls report to see whether October hike bets firm up.