Gold Price at Crossroads Ahead of Fed Decision

The gold price is at a crossroads ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision today. The market has priced in a 94% chance of a hike, and gold has bounced off its neckline overnight to trade near $4,383. Silver is leading the charge, up more than gold, while the miners are also moving higher.

The dollar is flat rather than falling, which could indicate a short-covering session ahead of the decision. Oil prices have eased from their four-month high, but this is not necessarily a reversal signature. The interest rate decision tends to produce uncertainty, temporarily boosting precious metals prices before they decrease regardless of the outcome.

Gold has been under pressure as bond yields have risen, with every step up in yields taking something out of gold's price. The market's reaction to the decision will come from three key factors: the dot plot, the wording on oil, and the two-year yield.