Hormuz Conflict Removes 2.6B Barrels from Global Oil Supply

The ongoing conflict between Iran and a US- and Israel-led coalition has led to a severe disruption in global oil supply, resulting in the removal of 2.6 billion barrels of oil from the market.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transportation, has seen significant impacts on shipping routes due to military confrontations.

Market participants are currently pricing in a low likelihood of traffic normalization by August 31, with the current odds at just 13.5% YES, up from 12% held consistently over the past week.

The broader geopolitical tensions and military activities continue to contribute to a cautious market outlook, with participants remaining skeptical about any imminent resolution that would restore normal traffic levels.