Iran's Leverage Over Hormuz Strait Slips as Global Demand Increases

Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is slowly being challenged as global economic demand puts pressure on its ability to disrupt oil exports from the Middle East. Seven months after the war began, oil flows out of the region reached 92% of their pre-war level during the final week of September, according to Kpler data.

The US and Israeli strikes in February led Iran to leverage its ability to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, causing global economic chaos and deterring continued attacks. However, this power is beginning to slip as ships begin to move under new tactics and increased US support.

Oil exports from the region have recovered to 16.328 million barrels per day in September, the highest monthly level since the war began, with Saudi Arabia driving the recovery. The use of a shuttle tanker system, where ships pick up crude oil cargoes outside of the Strait of Hormuz and transfer them to safer waters, has also helped restore movement through the waterway.

Despite this, Iranian forces continue to attack commercial shipping and vessels traveling with American military support. However, every additional tanker that gets through the strait reduces Tehran's leverage, and the question remains whether Iran will escalate to prove it can still raise the costs of this war.