Jaishankar Warns of Global Food Crisis Amid Disruptions and El Niño

India's External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has warned of a major global food crisis in the coming months. At an Asia Society event in New York, he cited disruptions to grain shipments, fertilizer shortages, and a strengthening El Niño as the main causes for concern.

The Black Sea region is particularly vulnerable due to ongoing conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, both key wheat exporters. Russian wheat exports are expected to fall to 1 million tonnes in September from 5 million tonnes last year, while Ukrainian exports will be roughly half their level from a year ago. This has driven up international wheat prices by 15%.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has also reported significant fertilizer shortages due to disruptions in the Gulf region. The FAO estimates that between 1.5 million and 3 million tonnes of monthly fertiliser trade have been delayed amid these disruptions.

El Niño, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon, is expected to intensify into a very strong event in the coming months. This will pose significant risks to agriculture in several regions, including South and Southeast Asia, Southern Africa, the Sahel, and Central America.

Jai Shankar described this crisis as part of a broader '4F' predicament: food, fuel, fertilizer, and finance. He argued that geopolitical conflicts are producing interconnected pressures across these areas, with each factor reinforcing the others.