Middle East Crude Exports Surge Despite Strait of Hormuz Tanker Attacks

Middle East crude oil exports have surged past pre-war levels, reaching 19.5-22.5 million barrels per day (bpd) between September 24 and 29, according to Kpler data. This increase comes despite ongoing attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy corridor. The Kazimah III, carrying 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude, was struck by an unknown projectile on October 1, sparking a fire onboard. All crew members were evacuated safely.

Despite the security risks, export volumes rebounded in late September, exceeding averages seen before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. The seven-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd on October 1, including shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and other routes. The overall tally for crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days ending September 30.

Security threats around the Strait of Hormuz have intensified, with at least one tanker attack reported daily since October 2, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency. Marisks, a shipping intelligence firm, warns of heightened risks as traffic increases sharply. Recent incidents suggest missiles may be launched into predetermined engagement areas rather than targeting specific vessels.

Earlier reports highlighted escalating disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, noting that rising risks of broader regional conflict were fueling energy-market volatility and supporting higher crude prices amid fears of supply disruptions.