Middle East Oil Exports Recover but Tanker Attacks Raise Concerns

Middle East oil exports have rebounded to levels surpassing those seen before the recent conflict, at least for part of September. Data indicates that by September 30, the average crude oil export from the region reached 18.3 million barrels per day, with shipments exceeding pre-war levels for 14 days that month. Saudi Arabia played a key role in this surge, increasing oil loadings from both the Red Sea and the Gulf after an attack on its East-West pipeline. This required more supertankers due to limits on ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

The increase in exports was further facilitated by Iraq’s Oil Tanker Company, which secured permission from Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the rise in shipping volumes comes amid growing concerns over tanker attacks. Over the past week, at least seven incidents were reported, including an attack on the ship Kazimah III, which caught fire after being struck by a projectile. Another tanker, Lipsi, was also damaged, though no injuries were reported.

The frequency of these attacks has raised alarms about safety in the region’s waters, with reports suggesting that Iranian forces may be targeting areas with missile strikes rather than specific vessels. Prior to the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz handled about 125 commercial vessels daily, crucial for global oil and gas supplies. The sustainability of the current export levels remains uncertain given the ongoing security risks.