Middle East Oil Exports Surge Amid Speculation of Iranian Toll System

Middle East oil exports have rebounded above pre-war levels, reaching between 19.5 and 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in late September, according to data from maritime tracking firm Kpler. Before the conflict began in February, exports averaged around 18 million bpd. This surge is attributed to US-led tanker escorts and increased ship-to-ship transfers, which reduce the risk of Iranian attacks. However, a senior Kpler analyst suggested that Gulf countries might be paying Iran a toll for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially handing Tehran a significant portion of the cargo's value.

Michelle Brohard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler, speculated that some countries could be paying Iran for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. She suggested this practice is unsustainable and indicated a race to export as much oil as possible before the war restarts. The claim has not been independently verified, but reports from as early as March hinted at Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) imposing a "toll booth" system. The US has repeatedly stated that Iran will not be allowed to charge such tolls under any agreement.

Oil prices have remained high due to elevated insurance rates driven by fears of Iranian attacks and market concerns about a return to hot war. Brent crude was trading at about $101.59 a barrel on Monday, while US West Texas Intermediate fell to about $90.05. The Strait of Hormuz remains a major flashpoint, with recent attacks on tankers raising concerns about further disruptions. Academic Abdul Khalique described the toll system as an "informal security mechanism" rather than a formal maritime levy, noting that the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea safeguards transit passage through international straits.