Middle East Oil Exports Surge Despite Rising Tanker Attacks

Middle East oil exports surged past pre-war levels in September, despite rising tensions and attacks on tankers. Shipping data from Kpler and Vortexa revealed that crude exports from the region averaged 18.3 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of September, surpassing pre-war levels on 14 days. This increase was driven largely by Saudi Arabia, which ramped up shipments to regain market share, according to senior market analyst Xavier Tang. The export surge also included Iraq, which secured permission from Iran to transit the Strait of Hormuz with its oil tankers.

The rise in oil exports comes amid heightened threats in the region. Tehran has threatened retaliation against the U.S. and its allies, while Iran-allied Houthis have seized control of the Bab al-Mandeb strait and bombed Saudi oil pipelines. Shipping intelligence service Marisks warned of a “heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat” due to the recent spike in vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the increase in exports has been accompanied by a wave of attacks on tankers. At least seven incidents were reported in the past week, including strikes on the very large crude carrier Kazimah III and the Aframax tanker Lipsi. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported daily attacks in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 1. Marisks suggested that Iranian forces may be launching missiles into predetermined engagement areas rather than targeting specific vessels.

Before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz handled about 125 large commercial vessels per day, accounting for 20% of global crude and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply. Despite the recent attacks, LNG cargoes exiting the strait rose in September to their highest levels since February.