Oil Prices Dip as G7 Releases Reserves and Middle East Exports Rise

Oil prices dipped on Monday as rising crude exports from the Middle East and the G7's decision to release emergency oil stocks increased global supply. Brent crude futures fell 0.65% to $101.59 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 1.03% to $90.12 a barrel. The G7's move to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude follows pressure from US President Donald Trump, aiming to ease supply concerns amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Shipping data revealed that Middle East crude exports surpassed pre-war levels in four of the final week of September, despite attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, noted that the G7's reserve release and returning Saudi export volumes are tempering oil prices, even as risks to Gulf energy infrastructure persist.

The Houthis claimed to have launched ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco sites in Riyadh and Khurais, though Saudi Arabia has not confirmed these attacks. Meanwhile, Yemen's Saudi-backed government announced a major military campaign to retake areas controlled by the Houthis. Aramco also cut November crude oil prices for Asia to six-year lows.

Geopolitical tensions continue to support Brent prices above $100 per barrel, according to ING analysts. OPEC+ delayed a review of 2027 oil output quotas due to the Iran war disrupting expansion projects. In Europe, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that Ukraine will intensify attacks on Russian oil refineries.