OPEC+ Delays Oil Capacity Review Amid US-Israeli War Disruptions

OPEC+ has delayed its review of members' 2027 oil production capacity due to the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran, which has disrupted expansion projects across the Middle East. The assessment was originally set for September but is now expected to be completed by mid-November.

The delay complicates estimates of future output and may result in smaller allocations for producers that have expanded their output potential. Iraq, OPEC's second-largest crude producer, has long argued that its current quota does not account for increased capacity and is seeking a higher allocation. The country's government sources told Shafaq News in June that Baghdad was considering leaving OPEC, although the Oil Ministry denied any plan to withdraw.

The review is crucial for Iraq as crude sales generate roughly 90% of its state revenue, making it highly exposed to output restrictions and disruptions along export routes. The Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for around 93% to 95% of Iraq's oil exports, has remained closed since the regional war began in February 2026.

Leaving OPEC would free Iraq from production limits, but withdrawals remain rare. Angola exited in early 2024 following a quota dispute, and Indonesia left in 2016.