OPEC+ holds steady on oil output targets for November

OPEC+ has decided to maintain its oil production targets for November, as announced in a brief online meeting on Sunday. The group, which includes seven core members such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, confirmed that no changes will be made to output levels this month. This decision aligns with market expectations, as significant adjustments are unlikely until next year.

Despite the steady production targets, Gulf OPEC+ producers have been operating well below their usual levels due to export disruptions caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran. Recent months have seen exports fluctuate between 60% and 80% of normal levels. Analyst Giovanni Staunovo from UBS noted that while production ceilings remain unchanged, actual output levels are still below quota, keeping the oil market tight.

Oil prices had dipped on Friday following the European leaders' agreement to release diesel reserves at the request of US President Donald Trump. However, Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel, a significant increase from approximately $73 before the Iran war began in late February. The conflict has also delayed the group's output capacity review, which is essential for determining members' 2027 output quotas.

OPEC+ has been gradually raising output targets throughout 2026, but most of these increases have remained on paper due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. In August, the seven core members pumped 25 million barrels per day, up 630,000 barrels per day from July, but still roughly 5 million barrels per day below prewar levels. The next meeting is scheduled for November 1, with any changes to output levels unlikely before 2027.