OPEC+ to Keep November Oil Output Targets Steady Amid Conflict Uncertainty

OPEC+ has tentatively agreed to maintain its current oil production targets for November, according to three sources familiar with the discussions. This decision comes ahead of the group's meeting scheduled for Sunday. The move reflects ongoing challenges faced by Gulf OPEC+ producers, who have been operating significantly below their targets due to export disruptions caused by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Exports from these producers have fluctuated between 60% and 80% of normal levels in recent months.

The conflict has also postponed the group's output capacity review, which is essential for determining members' 2027 production quotas. The uncertainty surrounding future production potential has made it difficult to proceed with the review. OPEC+ has been gradually increasing output targets throughout 2026, but most of these increases have remained on paper due to the Middle East conflict.

In August, the seven core OPEC+ members pumped 25 million barrels per day, an increase of 630,000 barrels per day from July. However, this is still roughly 5 million barrels per day below prewar levels in February. The group currently has about 2 million barrels per day of output cuts in place, covering most members. Any changes to output are unlikely before 2027, sources have indicated.

The seven core members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, are set to meet at 1100 GMT on Sunday. Additionally, a separate OPEC+ ministerial group, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), will convene to review the market. The JMMC does not decide policy but provides recommendations.