Sunflower Oil Exports Plummet as Ukraine and Russia Suffer Logistics Disruptions

The global sunflower oil market may face a significant supply crunch due to reduced exports from Ukraine and Russia, two of its key suppliers. The logistics disruptions and problems affecting port infrastructure are expected to impact export volumes in MY 2026/27, according to estimates presented at the Globoil conference in Mumbai.

In October-March, Ukraine is projected to export around 300 thousand tons of sunflower oil per month, which is approximately 50% below normal levels. India may import about 700 thousand tons of Ukrainian sunflower oil during this period, while Europe remains the main destination market for these exports.

Russia's sunflower oil exports are also expected to decline by 25-38% year-on-year, with an estimated monthly average of 250-300 thousand tons. However, this forecast comes from Anton Gritsay, executive director of Russian producer EFKO, and may be considered optimistic compared to actual export dynamics.

A simultaneous decline in shipments from both countries could lead to tighter supply on the global market, making it challenging for other suppliers to compensate for lost Black Sea volumes. This situation may drive up sunflower oil prices and encourage some importers to switch to soybean and palm oil.