US Corn Set to Replace Ukrainian Supply Amid Black Sea Conflict

The ongoing conflict in the Black Sea region is expected to disrupt Egypt's corn imports from Ukraine, leading to increased shipments from the United States. Egyptian importers are anticipating a decrease in Ukrainian corn supplies due to the war, with one importer stating that notable US corn arrivals have yet to appear but will likely increase before the year ends.

While some believe US corn can replace Ukrainian origin in Egypt, others are more cautious, citing higher shipping costs and price formation differences. The Cairo-based buyer explained that numerous Egyptian purchasers of Ukrainian corn depend on small vessels, which would incur higher costs from the US.

South American corn continues to be Egypt's leading source of supply, with 88% of imports coming from Brazil and Argentina as of September 15. Egypt anticipates roughly 1.3 million mt of Brazilian corn to reach its ports by October 15, with a further 1 million mt expected between October 15 and November 15.