US NatGas Prices Expected to Dip on Record Supply, El Nino
US natural gas prices are expected to be lower this winter compared to last year due to a strong El Nino weather pattern and record domestic supply, according to analysts. This could lead to lower heating costs for consumers.
The US Energy Information Administration reported that gas futures contracts for December 2026 through February 2027 averaged $3.49 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), down from $3.96 during the same period last winter. Current prices are around $3.04 per mmBtu.
US gas production is on track to reach record levels for a second year in a row, up about 4% from the current annual all-time high of 107.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2025. This ample supply will help keep inventories well supplied heading into the winter heating season.
However, some analysts warn that a strong El Nino could lead to warmer-than-normal temperatures in key northern heating markets, potentially curbing residential and commercial demand for gas. Zhen Zhu of C.H. Guernsey and Company expects prices at the US Henry Hub gas benchmark in Louisiana to average around $3.50 per mmBtu from December through February.
Analysts at Bank of America also note that a mild winter, delays to US LNG export projects, or higher-than-expected gas production in the Permian Shale could further depress gas prices.