Weaker Jobs Data Boosts Stocks, Lifts Gold Prices

The stock market ended the week on a high note as investors interpreted weak jobs data as a sign that the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates in September. The S&P 500 pushed to another record high, with the Dow and Nasdaq also rising significantly.

The July Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, far below the expected gain of 80,000. This led to a decrease in the odds of a rate hike in September from 58.7% to 42.9%. The prediction markets had already been pricing in a lower chance of a rate hike, with Kalshi and Polymarket showing around 34% odds before the report.

Gold prices surged on Friday, rising 2.4% or $102/oz to $4,340. While the weak jobs report was a contributing factor, analysts believe the move was largely technical and momentum-driven. The metal had broken above the upper end of its trading range at $4,200.

Oil prices remained volatile due to ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran presenting new demands for a deal. Until a real agreement is reached, the geopolitical premium will continue to impact oil prices, and crude may make another run higher.