Binance Warns Bitcoin Rally May Retest Low Points

Bitcoin has surged nearly 47% from its July low of around $58,000, reaching above $86,000. This rally has sparked optimism among investors, but Binance Research warns that the price may retest its previous lows. According to the firm's analysts, historical data shows that in similar past recoveries, Bitcoin often retested its lows within a short period.

The research identified seven similar price movements between 2011 and 2023. In four out of five cases, Bitcoin retested its lows within 43 days. The only exception was in July 2021. The current signal emerged on September 3rd, when Bitcoin was 35.6% below its previous peak, a range where past recoveries have mostly failed.

Binance Research suggests that forced selling pressure may have subsided after deep declines, creating a healthier foundation for recovery. However, in shallower declines, selling pressure may not have fully dissipated, making the uptrend more fragile. The firm emphasizes that this is a probability assessment, not a definitive prediction.

The focus is now on October, historically a strong month for Bitcoin. A strong performance could support the current rally, while weak movements might indicate insufficient momentum. Binance Research urges caution, noting that the recovery could be at risk of retesting previous lows.