Bitcoin Breaks Key Threshold as Bear Market Fading Hope

Bitcoin's recent performance is causing some to speculate that the bear market might be over. Since hitting its low in July, the digital asset has gained 47% (as of September 23). Two metrics are pointing towards optimism: the S&P 500 index's historical performance and Bitcoin's 50-week moving average.

A review of data going back to 1950 shows that during midterm election years, October and November tend to see higher stock market returns. This bodes well for the S&P 500 index, which is already up 13% year-to-date. The benchmark index has averaged gains of 3% and 2.7% in October and November, respectively.

The strong correlation between the S&P 500 index and Bitcoin suggests that a rise in stocks could also benefit cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. With October around the corner, this trend could help propel Bitcoin forward.

Bitcoin has crossed its 50-week moving average, a key threshold analyzed by Joe Consorti, a well-known Bitcoin and macro analyst. According to his data, whenever Bitcoin has crossed this level to the upside, the bear market cycle's low point was behind it 75% of the time. Excluding data from 2020, the hit rate rises to 100%, implying that a new upcycle for Bitcoin might be underway.