Bitcoin Defies October Weakness Holding Above Historical Averages

Bitcoin is currently trading at $85,868, up 1.86% from where historical averages would place it at this point in October. The first three days of October have historically been Bitcoin’s weakest stretch, with an average return of -0.66%. However, in 2026, Bitcoin has defied this trend, holding positive through this typically weak period.

Seasonal analysis of Bitcoin shows that while the first few days of October are usually negative, the rest of the month tends to recover, ending with a cumulative return of +13.37%. This year, Bitcoin has already surpassed the historical average for this period, trading roughly $2,845 above where seasonality predicted it would be. This resilience is significant because it removes a specific seasonal drag that has previously weighed on early-month price action.

CryptoQuant analyst AxelAdlerJr noted that Bitcoin’s fair value range, based on long-run Power Law modeling, is currently around $157,000. At $85,868, Bitcoin is trading at a significant discount to this implied value. However, the Power Law model does not constitute a near-term price target but provides a cycle-level reference point for future price movements.

Looking ahead, the key level to watch is $83,023. Holding above this level keeps the seasonal outperformance thesis intact, while breaking below it would indicate that the early strength was a temporary deviation rather than a structural change.