Bitcoin Q4 Outlook: Optimism Rises as ETF Inflows and Halving Cycle Converge

The outlook for Bitcoin in Q4 is turning cautiously optimistic due to renewed ETF purchases and compelling valuations. The historically reliable 4-year halving cycle suggests that Bitcoin's bear market may soon be coming to an end, if it hasn't already.

A key theme supporting Bitcoin in recent years has been accumulation by large financial institutions and mom-and-pop investors. Inflows from 'TradFi' institutional investors buying spot Bitcoin ETFs have reached $57B, with total inflows near $4B over the last 3 months.

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-score has bounced to 0.8, closer to the typical bear market bottom zone at 0.0 than the late 2024 peak above 3.0. The proportion of Bitcoin that has been held for at least a year has recovered off the late-2025 lows to rise back above 63% as of writing.