Bitcoin Rally Falls Short of Saving Miners from Difficulty Increase

The recent Bitcoin price rally to $84,751 has provided some relief for miners, but it may not be enough to offset the impact of the difficulty increase. According to CryptoSlate's analysis, the current gross hashprice is about 2.65% above the prior modeled baseline, indicating a modest improvement in mining economics. However, the next difficulty estimate points to a 2.48% decline, which could signal that miners are still struggling.

The current difficulty increase of 4.16% on September 19 was less severe than projected, and the price-to-difficulty ratio has improved by about 2.79%. However, the recent fee average is low, contributing little to miner revenue. Theoretical gross hashprice estimates suggest that miners' revenue per unit of computing power has improved modestly, but this may not be enough to sustain profitability.

The early block pace in the new epoch indicates a slower-than-target block production, which could lead to a lower difficulty adjustment. However, it's essential to note that the Mempool estimate is an early signal and not a direct count of active machines. The current estimated hashrate series does not show any sustained collapse, but individual operators may still be experiencing difficulties.