Bitcoin Reclaims 365-Day Average, $100K Scenarios Revived

Bitcoin has reclaimed its 365-day moving average near $80,500, sparking renewed speculation about a potential move to $100,000 in October. PlanB, an analyst behind bitcoin's stock-to-flow model, outlined a scenario that would put BTC at $100,000 in October and potentially beyond $232,000 by 2027 or 2028.

The recovery above $80,000 is seen as a bullish sign, with Glassnode data showing a shallower drawdown and restrained profit-taking compared to previous market tops. This suggests that investors are distributing coins gradually rather than rushing for the exits, which could indicate a stronger setup for further price gains.

However, not everyone agrees on how the recovery fits bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle. Layah Heilpern noted that BTC peaked on Oct. 6, 2025, and previous major bottoms arrived around 12 to 13 months after their respective peaks. This could potentially place the next cyclical low between early October and mid-November.

The path toward $100,000 is becoming easier to argue if profit-taking stays controlled and new demand persists. However, if the older four-year cycle reasserts itself, bitcoin may still face one final test before the market can declare the downturn over.