Bitcoin Transfer Estimates Can Vary Sixfold Depending on Calculation Method

A new study from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) reveals that widely cited crypto metrics can vary significantly depending on how they are calculated. The research, which used a vast dataset of over 100 billion points from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tron, shows that estimates of Bitcoin transfer values can differ by as much as sixfold.

The study highlights the importance of understanding the methodology behind on-chain metrics, which can be influenced by factors such as how change is handled in transactions. Change outputs can inflate measured transfer value, and analysts must use transaction structure and address patterns to infer likely change. The researchers found that different methods can classify the same activity differently.

The study also notes that token tickers do not establish an issuer, and users should compare a token's contract address and network with information published by the issuer or another trusted registry before treating it as genuine USDT. The research emphasizes that on-chain metrics require definitions and context, and that widely cited metrics can be misleading without proper understanding of their calculation methods.