Checkonchain Analyst: Bitcoin Cycle Bottom May Already Be In at $58K

Bitcoin's cycle bottom may have already occurred at $58K, according to James Check, founder and lead analyst at Checkonchain. He believes that shifts in holder behavior indicate the market has absorbed much of its selling pressure. Bitcoin reached a record high of over $126,000 in October 2025 and traded around $77,400 at the time of writing, nearly 39% below its peak.

Check identified two capitulation events: a 'price-pain capitulation' in February when investors sold at substantial losses, and a 'time-pain capitulation' in June and July following months of sideways price action. He noted that the difference between $58,000 and $60,000 is not significant.

Checkonchain data shows that approximately $300 billion in Bitcoin cost basis was concentrated between $58,000 and $70,000, while about 4 million BTC moved from an unrealized loss into profit during the subsequent recovery. Long-term holders now control roughly 80% of Bitcoin wealth and are more likely to wait for substantially higher prices than sell after a short-term rebound.