Missing Bitcoin’s Best Days Turns Gains Into Losses

Bitcoin’s long-term returns can drastically change if investors miss its strongest trading days, according to a recent analysis by Grayscale. The digital asset manager’s research, published on October 5, found that excluding just 15 of Bitcoin’s best days over a three-year period turns a 225% gain into an 11% loss. The study underscores how critical it is for investors to stay consistently exposed to the market rather than trying to time rallies.

Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, highlighted that excluding the top five trading days reduces Bitcoin’s three-year return to 95%, while removing the top 10 leaves a 27% gain. The analysis demonstrates the significant impact of missing even a few high-performing sessions. For instance, a $10,000 investment would grow to $32,500 with the full three-year return but only reach $8,900 if the top 15 days were excluded.

The report also compared Bitcoin’s performance to the Nasdaq-100 Index, which showed less concentration of gains. Excluding the Nasdaq-100’s top 15 days reduced its three-year return from 109% to 21%. Pandl emphasized that strong trading sessions are unpredictable, advocating for long-term exposure over market timing to capture rallies when they occur.

Grayscale’s findings align with broader market observations. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) noted that attempting to time the market can lead investors to miss rebounds during volatile periods. Additionally, Glassnode’s analysis linked Bitcoin’s volatility to long-term holder supply, though this does not establish causation.