XRP Price Prediction Hangs in Balance Ahead of October Release Window

As the market awaits the next release window from Ripple's escrow holdings on October 1, 2026, XRP price prediction is a hot topic. With up to 1 billion XRP set to be released, worth around $1.55 billion at the current price of $1.55, the question remains whether this will lead to a rise or fall in value. Looking back at the past week's data, we see that spot ETFs took in $52.7 million, while exchange balances are falling, with 625.9 million XRP less than a week earlier.

The bull case requires the ETF channel to hold or increase its inflow over several weeks, while exchange balances continue to fall and only a small part of the release window reaches the market. This scenario would lead to a shrinking available supply meeting a constant stream of demand. On the other hand, the bear case requires a large part of the release to be sold, with the ETF channel turning negative on individual days.

The current price of $1.55 is 1.41 percent below the reading of 24 hours earlier, and the all-time high of $3.65 is 57.5 percent away, requiring a rise of 135.5 percent to reach that level again. The daily range from $1.54 to $1.58 covers $0.04, or 2.6 percent of the low.