US Tariffs Unite India, China, and Russia Against American Coercion

A recent law passed by the US Congress, signed into effect on Friday, authorizes tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian energy. The law's bipartisan passage means that pressure on India may outlast President Trump's presidency. The BRICS summit in New Delhi last month called for a multipolar order and alternative payment systems, which may have triggered the US Congress into passing this legislation.

India is exposed to these tariffs due to its extensive trade with the US, exporting $87 billion in merchandise and $119.7 billion in software services. A 100% tariff would directly strike goods, while the resulting chill would reach technology, investment, and employment markets begin worrying long before customs officers start collecting.

The law's selectivity is also noteworthy, as Russian oil reaching India supposedly finances Moscow's war, but Russian gas reaching Europe is considered an unavoidable necessity. If Washington uses its new authority to impose tariffs on Indian imports of Russian energy, it may push India, China, and Russia together into a single geopolitical group.

Coercion can unite countries that strategy keeps apart. The BRICS summit's argument that dependence on one market, currency, and payment system is a strategic vulnerability may gain traction due to the US reaction. A common BRICS currency remains difficult but no longer unimaginable, as trade in national currencies, new clearing arrangements, alternative payment networks, and diversified reserves become more probable.