Google Pay Dominates UPI Market as MDR Framework Takes Effect

Google Pay dominates the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) market, accounting for 35% of UPI transaction value and 27% of transaction volumes. Paytm comes in second with a 6% share of both transaction value and volume. CRED ranks third with a 2% share of transaction value. Other platforms collectively represent 57% of transaction value and 66% of transaction volumes.

Jefferies notes that UPI transaction value remains concentrated among the top four to five players, making the introduction of MDR particularly relevant for large payment platforms. The new framework will apply a 0.4% MDR on eligible P2M UPI transactions above ₹2,000, with exemptions and caps.

Jefferies estimates that transactions above ₹2,000 account for only 4% of P2M volumes but around 67% of P2M payment value. Goldman Sachs estimates that around 48% of UPI P2M transaction value could qualify for the full 40-bps MDR.

Paytm is expected to benefit significantly from the new framework, with Goldman Sachs estimating an incremental FY28 EBITDA of ₹840-1,400 crore, equivalent to around 43-72% of its existing FY28 EBITDA estimate. Jefferies has also raised its Paytm earnings estimates, increasing FY28-29 earnings by 10-12% after factoring in the 40-bps MDR framework.