Jefferies Adjusts Unilever View Amid One-Off Factors

Jefferies has adjusted its view of Unilever's recent performance after the consumer goods group reported a standout quarter. According to David Hayes, the company's headline second-quarter volume growth was inflated by roughly 2 percentage points due to one-off factors.

The analyst estimates that these distortions added around €256 million of sales in the quarter. Specifically, Unilever's sponsorship of the North American World Cup and retailers buying ahead of price rises contributed an estimated 3 percentage points each to the division. Meanwhile, Amazon Prime Day shifted into the second quarter, adding another €30 million.

In Hayes' view, these dynamics are not unique to Unilever and can be seen in other companies such as Procter & Gamble. When stripping out these distortions, volume and mix growth at the core business came in at about 5.4%, a two-year compound growth rate of about 3%. The analyst has raised his full-year like-for-like sales forecast by 40 basis points to 4.4%, which is now within Unilever's guidance range.