JPM's Q3 Outlook: Capital Markets Remain Key Driver of Fee-Driven Revenues

JPMorgan's third-quarter 2026 outlook suggests that capital markets will remain a key contributor to fee-driven revenues, despite some sequential cooling from an exceptionally strong second quarter. Management expects investment banking fees to rise in the mid-to-high teens year over year, supported by broad-based strength across products and geographies.

The outlook is notable given JPMorgan generated $2.6 billion of IB fees in the third quarter of 2025. While the year-over-year setup remains favorable, some sequential cooling is likely after IB fees reached $3.2 billion in second-quarter 2026, aided by particularly strong equity underwriting activity.

JPMorgan also expects trading to provide an even larger cushion to non-interest revenues, with Markets revenues increasing in the mid-to-high teens year over year, supported by broad-based strength across fixed income and equities. Trading should provide a significant boost to fee-driven revenues, which totaled $22.5 billion in the third quarter of 2025.