Lula's Leadership Saves Amazon Forest from Deforestation

Lula's presidency has had a significant impact on Amazon deforestation in Brazil. Since he took office in 2022, forest loss has dropped sharply and is likely to hit its lowest level on record this year. In comparison to a scenario where Bolsonaro won the election, at least 20,000 square kilometers of Amazon forest remains standing today due to Lula's leadership.

The analysis by Carbon Brief suggests that Lula's prioritization of Amazon protection has led to a significant reduction in deforestation. Experts estimate that this area is roughly the size of New Jersey or Wales and is based on modelling of an alternative scenario where Brazil's forest code legislation was not enforced.

Dr. Aline Soterroni, a University of Oxford researcher, notes that the reversal seen under Lula 'shows how quickly deforestation can respond to political will'. However, she stresses that the modelling of the 'no forest code' scenario is relatively conservative and does not capture the potential for illegal forest clearing in response to weak governance.

With Jair Bolsonaro in prison and his son Flávio Bolsonaro running against Lula in the upcoming presidential election, experts warn that a Bolsonaro win would lead to a surge in deforestation. Dr. Patricia Pinho says that 'we can't afford four years of increasing deforestation' and violence against Indigenous peoples.