MediaTek Shares Plummet as SemiAnalysis Cuts Google TPU Shipment Forecasts

MediaTek's shares took a hit today after a report from SemiAnalysis cut shipment forecasts for Google's Tensor Processing Unit (TPU). The research firm expects TPU v7x and v8i shipments to fall short of prior estimates due to CoWoS-S advanced packaging capacity ramp challenges. Broadcom, which supplies TPUs to Google, saw its shares plunge 5.94% last Friday.

The SemiAnalysis report revised down TPU production in the second half of 2026 by approximately 500,000 units, from 3.2 million to 2.7 million units. This is due to CoWoS output for TPU v7 (Ironwood) being reduced by around 32,000 wafers and TPU v8i (Sunfish) output being cut by about 5,000 wafers.

Looking ahead to 2027, SemiAnalysis's current production estimates for TPU v7 and TPU 8i are also below the previous combined expectation of 6 million units. This is due to more capacity being allocated to other customers, with Broadcom's total CoWoS wafer output estimated at approximately 460,000 wafers.