Raymond James keeps Disney rating Outperform, lowers price target to $119

Raymond James has maintained its Outperform rating on Walt Disney stock but reduced its price target from $120 to $119. The adjustment comes as the firm updated its model ahead of Disney's fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings. Currently trading at $102.19, Disney's stock shows potential upside to the new target. The company's P/E ratio stands at 21.13, and its market capitalization is $176.45 billion.

The firm expects some weakness in Asia Parks, particularly in Hong Kong and Shanghai, due to consumer weakness in China. While Universal's Osaka park has seen a decline in Chinese visitation, Disney's Tokyo park is licensed, not owned. For fiscal 2027, Raymond James anticipates a front-half weighted earnings year, driven by factors like cruise ship launches, major events, and lapsing deals. Disney has guided for double-digit adjusted earnings per share growth in fiscal 2027, excluding the impact of a 53rd week in fiscal 2026.

Raymond James has adjusted its streaming direct-to-consumer margins, reflecting increased spending on programming, production, and marketing. Disney aims to triple its international and local Disney+ output over the next three years. The firm's fiscal 2027 capitalized cash content spend estimate has been increased to $26.7 billion from $25.1 billion, with total capital expenditures reduced. Other analysts, including Guggenheim and Goldman Sachs, have also weighed in on Disney's stock, with varying price targets and ratings.