Ukraine's Corn Market Faces Paradox as Demand Remains High Amid Falling Prices

The corn market in Ukraine is facing a paradoxical situation where demand for the old crop remains high, but prices for the new crop are falling rapidly. The ongoing conflict and shelling of ships and port infrastructure by Russia have led to an increase in freight costs from Danube ports, slowing down deliveries. As a result, demand prices for Ukrainian corn decreased by 100-500 UAH/t to 5500-6000 UAH/t on EXW-elevator terms in the east and center of the country.

In contrast, western regions still have demand for corn for delivery in September at a price of 7000-7500 UAH/t FCA-loaded into a wagon or car. This is due to delayed deliveries, with traders having signed contracts for delivery to the EU. The situation has led to delays in unloading at the western borders, increasing downtime for wagons by 2-4 weeks and resulting in their shortage.

The cost of rail transportation from central regions to the western borders has increased to 2200-2700 UAH/t, while the cost of delivery by road has increased to 3000 UAH/t including VAT. The impact on world prices is expected to be significant, especially if oil prices fall amid talks with Iran.